Metabolic and lifestyle factors as major risk factors for diabetes in the Blue Mountains Eye Study

Among 3654 Australian residents aged ≥49 years examined at baseline during 1992-1994, 2335 were re-examined during 1997-1999, and 1952 during 2002-2004 so as to estimate the incidence of diabetes and impaired fasting glucose (IFG), along with the increased risk associated with the metabolic syndrome. In this population-based cohort of mostly white Caucasian older subjects, the Kaplan-Meier cumulative 10-year incidence of diabetes was 9.3% and that of IFG 15.8%. The risk of incident diabetes was 3.4-fold higher in subjects with metabolic syndrome at baseline than in those without (29.2% vs 8.6%). Elevated fasting glucose levels (95% CI, 3.4-6.1 per mmol/L), obesity (95% CI, 1.3-2.8), diabetes family history (95% CI, 1.2-2.5), current smoking (95% CI, 1.0-2.7), and HDL-cholesterol level <1.0 mmol/L (95% CI, 1.5-3.8) at baseline were major risk factors for incident diabetes and IFG, confirming the major role of metabolic and/or lifestyle factors.

Abstract